2018年4月18日星期三

Muda 3883 慕达 Rm 2.10 还能投资吗?

Muda 2018年第1,2,3季度业积很大机率超越去年的,趁回跌買入,中国禁止废纸进口,洛阳纸贵短期间会不变,作为大马唯一一家上游业务的慕达将受益,废紙便宜,成品銷售价好,从近期2017年第4季度业积取得8%多赚副,估计2018年的盈利爆升,取7%计,公司年营业额约15亿,盈利达1.05亿,1.05亿/305051,000=Eps 34 仙,取pe=10,股价可达Rm 3.40,现Rm2.10只是本益比6.17倍在交易,明显被低估了,加上公司多年沒回報股东,今年配合美丽业积,有望发放红股。
纸价上扬的赢家肯定是上游造纸业者(Muda Paper Mills, Oji Paper, Nine Dragon Paper Holdings Ltd ,Pascorp Paper),
因为他们拥有控制价钱的话语权.我的浅见,muda 30大股东己持近80%股份了,股价飞升速度之快于2月底业积出后己領敎过了,如这消息属实很快就漲停了,2018年在爆升净利下股价会是穩建挺进的。
只供参考,盈亏自负。
看看相关行业内的公司股价:
1)Oji Paper,
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/3861:JP
2)Nine Dragon Paper Holdings Ltd 
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/2689:HK

3)Muda Paper Mills
https://www.bloomberg.com/quote/MUD:MK
其他网站:
https://www.seattletimes.com/business/some-seattle-area-recycling-dumped-in-landfills-as-chinas-restrictions-kick-in/

https://www.thestar.com.my/news/community/2012/05/28/two-companies-earning-big-bucks-from-recycling-paper/
吉隆坡21日讯)随着第14届全国大选来临,用纸量飙升,预计国内纸价会迎来另一波的涨潮!

马来西亚文具书业联合总会名誉会长兼彭亨文具书业公会会长郑东星说,纸价因供应及需求问题,去年尾已创下新高价,如今全国大选也进一步让纸量需求增加,价格随之变动。

他告诉《南洋商报》,尽管我国也有生产纸,但供不应求,只好从泰国及印尼进口,迎合市场需求。

郑东星:“无纸作业”非万能
应尽量使用再生纸

马来西亚文具书业联合总会名誉会长兼彭亨文具书业公会会长郑东星以A4纸为例,大马虽说逐渐鼓励“无纸作业”模式,但很多时候却难以在无纸张下办事,尤其是律师楼,大部分仍需用纸来打印文件。该会则鼓励各造尽量使用再生纸。

询及如何解决纸价高涨问题,他坦言这是没办法的事,只好贵来贵卖。

另一方面,马来西亚文具书业联合总会发文告说,纸价因数项因素,将持续上涨。

该会所指的因素包括商品纸浆货源偏紧,造成材料价格攀升、中国加强环保管理、环保力度加大,造成中小型造纸厂关闭、停产或整合改产,令纸厂开工率低,库存减少导致提供量低。

文告说,市场需求增加也导致纸张制品及生活用纸的价格暴涨,如包装用纸、文化用纸、生活用纸等。

至于国际木浆近年来的供应集中度不断提高,该会指全球最大生产纸浆和白纸企业,主要来自印尼金光集团和巴西地区,每年最少出口1万2000万吨纸浆。

“但是由于木材的稀缺性不断加强,有限的原材料供应进一步加剧企业议价能力。再加上沙巴纸厂被印度收购后,由于印度经济上的困难,已停产8 个月,1年减少了50万吨白纸供应。”

文告说,由于全球经济复苏的影响带动各产业成长超乎预期,目前国际纸浆价格正进入景气周期,市场未出现扭转迹象,若原料价继续上涨,企业难以消化成本上涨的压力,最终只能把压力转向消费者。
独家报道:江枚霞
21/04/2018 23:54
-- 慕达受惠这一仑的漲价中,如外国公司要收购肯定要出高于市场的价钱,继续加倉待丰收。

a)早前网友solaris80 之分析: 
有个可能,老板用业绩来包装公司,来卖的中国或日本潜在买家。不久前就做了的资产从新估值NTA RM3.1,我看成是卖公司的前奏。Harta Pack在2010年,卖给王子纸业是是以2.8倍的Book Value来出售。Muda的值产有RM3.1,如果以当时Harta被收购的估值来评价的话,可以自己用计算机算看,Rm3.1x2.8=8.6。纯属推测。 
03/03/2018 15:00 

前两轮就有两家公司要收购慕达了。价钱没谈成而已。 
03/03/2018 15:00 


Muda上游有500千吨加上下游现在有240千吨,过后接下来的几个月还有新的三架机器投产。单单Muda的下游240千顿,都已经值得两亿了,如果和Orna比较的话。Oji paper 才要刚建的上游新产能,450千吨的产能就要价12亿。现在Muda 500千上游吨产+240千吨下游产能才卖你6亿,价钱是否低估了? 
b)good comment from davidtslim: 
Summary 

1)Muda has the highest capacity of paper mill (upstream) in Malaysia. It benefited from China Blue Sky policy (ban of waste paper import) which the selling price of their products have increased consistently from Q4’17 to Q1’18 while the raw material (waste paper) price has dropped. 
2)The timely expansion of Muda in 2017 and 2018 (to be completed in Q3 and Q4) for its paper mill and corrugated plants coincident with the price surge of its product. This will further drive its profit growth especially in Q4’18 due to peak season of online retail shopping in Nov and Dec. 
3)Since 2nd half of 2017, paper price in China has been rising, and remain elevated until now. This was caused by shutting down of plants to improve environment. As China is a huge consumer of paper packaging products, the price increase spilled over to international market 
4)The demands in Malaysia for corrugated products will continue to grow especially Malaysia now serve as Alibaba’s regional e-commerce and logistics hub in South East Asia. 
5)Based on the higher demands and selling price of paper mill products, profit margin of Muda should be expanded in 2018 and it may has some export opportunity. 
6)Based on estimated EPS of 38 sen, with forward 12-month PEx of 10x, the fair value of Muda is estimated to be around RM3.8. 
7)Muda2018 = (Upstream+downstream+trading) X (Expansion+price hike) = High_Profit_Growth

Icon(Muda):my 2018 sailang stock
http://klse.i3investor.com/m/blog/icon8888/154696.jsp

c)M+ Online Technical Focus - 18 Apr 2018

Author:   |    Publish date: 

MUDA has experienced a trendline breakout above the RM1.99 level with high volumes. The MACD Indicator has issued a BUY Signal, while the RSI has risen above 50. Price may advance, targeting the RM2.30 and RM2.47 levels. Support will be set around the RM1.73 level.

d)https://9shares.my/中港台纸品股发力狂涨-大马纸业公司会"洛阳纸贵/

e)http://www.100ppi.com/forecast/detail-2018-04-08-129852.html

 f)https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=T7NHQbfpepw

Potential Momentum Stocks - 18 Apr 18
Stock Name: MUDA (3883)
Entry: Buy above RM1.99
Target: RM2.30 (15.6%), RM2.47 (24.1%)
Stop: RM1.73 (-13.1%)
Shariah: Yes
Technical: Trendline breakout
23/04/2018 10:40
废纸价格创2018年以来新高
http://www.100ppi.com 2018年04月21日 09:15 中国证券报
生意社04月21日讯
  4月19日,生意社发布的最新废纸行情走势显示,目前废纸价格已经攀升至今年以来的最高价位。根据百川资讯提供的综合造纸指数,2018年以来造纸指数均值为2200.13,最高点为2407.10,最低点为2023.23。目前,综合造纸指数达到2018年以来最高点,多品类废纸价格突破年内新高。

  此外,据99废纸之家监测,4月19日,废纸收购价普遍出现不同程度上涨。其中,华北、华南、西南地区领涨。广东清远森叶(清新)纸业、河北邢台沙河锦新纸业等多家造纸厂日涨幅达100元/吨。多地废纸纸板最新报价达2600元/吨。以天津玖龙为例,公司B级页子纸报价2670元/吨,箱板AA级报价2600元/吨,箱板边角料报价2500元/吨,箱板A级报价2500元/吨,箱板B级报价2400元/吨,箱板C级报价2250元/吨。

  百川资讯分析师芦亚亚对中国证券报记者表示,2018年以来,废纸价格稳步上涨,且上涨幅度较大。主要与外废额度大幅缩减有关。此外,海外纸浆价格攀升,促进国内价格上涨。影响废纸价格波动的因素很多。例如,外废管控、冬季环保限停产政策影响、产能调整等。

  (文章来源:中国证券报)
23/04/2018 10:43
今年文化纸和包装纸还有特种纸等纸价将大幅上涨
http://www.100ppi.com 2018年04月23日 09:04 山东商报
生意社04月23日讯
每年春节后往往都是造纸行业的传统淡季,一般原料废纸价格都会震荡下行,然而今年纸价却在淡季大幅上涨。山东商报记者通过调查了解到,山东省内多家造纸厂上调了废纸收购价格,目前纸厂收购废旧箱板纸价格在2550元/吨左右,与去年同期相比上涨近四成。

废纸价格上涨,废品贸易商囤货待涨

兆福在历下区姚家街道从事多年废品收购了,他告诉记者,“过去一斤废纸也就两三毛钱,年后回来到现在废纸一斤涨了快三毛钱,现在我们从居民手里回收的价格是普通废纸6毛一斤,旧箱板纸7毛一斤,旧报纸9毛一斤。”

家住历下区浆水泉路的市民房先生向记者表示,前几天他刚把家里的去年的旧报纸都卖了,总共是110斤卖了100块钱。“去年订报纸的时候还收到一些赠品,现在旧报纸回收价这么高,这样相当于没花钱白看了一年报。”房先生说。

由于废纸回收价格的上涨,王兆福的收入也有了不少的增加。“我平常一个月一般能收个五六吨废纸吧,最近光废纸差不多每个月就能比过去多赚个一千来块钱。”王兆福表示。

在采访过程中记者了解到,自今年年初以来,山东省内废纸价格一直保持着上涨的态势,但是上下波动却很频繁。

价格频繁的波动,增加了回收企业的经营风险,可由于对后期价格的看好,多数被采访的废纸贸易商都选择放慢走货节奏,囤货待涨。

潍坊翰源再生资源有限公司废纸部的王耀部长告诉记者,“年后废纸的价格涨得太快了,目前我们回收废旧箱板纸的价格基本是一吨2500元左右,花纸壳基本上是一吨1400元左右,这两个月差不多涨了10%。”

出于对后市价格的看好,王耀在3月初就决定改变过去快进快出的经营方式,同时把公司库存增加到近1200吨。

“这一个多月公司大概多挣了五万多块钱吧。”王耀告诉记者。

废纸价格逐日攀升,拉高纸价

据了解,目前山东省内多家造纸厂近期纷纷上调废纸回收价格。根据4月17日全国纸厂废纸收购价格调整情况显示,当日华东地区废纸价格上调30-100元/吨。

其中山东枣庄华润纸业宣布废纸价格上调100元/吨,山东泰安泰和纸业宣布箱板纸上调50元/吨,山东淄博九鹿纸业宣布废纸价格上调50元/吨。

原材料价格的上涨,直接拉动的就是纸企产品的走高,记者通过调查了解到,2月份以来,山东省内多家纸企包括上市公司晨鸣纸业等纷纷发布涨价函,纸种包括文化纸、包装纸、特种纸等。

分析师:废纸供应减少预期强烈,市场投机心态难平稳

有业内人士指出,纸价走高的直接原因是供应不足。目前,国内仅快递日订单量就近一亿,多重因素导致了市场对纸需求的激增。而由于造纸行业执行供给侧改革、淘汰落后产能等因素的影响,出现供需不平衡,价格自然上涨。

山东卓创资讯废纸市场分析师刘健认为,由于废纸供应减少的预期非常强烈,所以说整个现在市场投机的这个心态难以回归到平稳的状态,这个纸价的大幅波动在所难免,同时,纸价走高也与进口废纸量下降有一定关系。

“近几年,我国每年进口废纸数量占到国内造纸企业废纸原料的30%以上。而从去年开始我国对进口废纸的要求日趋严格,目前,进口废纸含杂率标准由原先的1.5%下调为0.5%。今年1-2 月份,我国进口废纸251万吨,同比下滑46%。”

使用包装较多的企业成本都受到较大的影响

纸价上涨对很多行业有直接的影响。烟台青山印务公司的负责人姜青山告诉记者,目前使用包装较多的企业成本都受到较大的影响,食品、药品以及很多本地特产销售企业均面临着成本上涨的压力。比如,一个通用的烟台红富士的纸箱,以前的出厂价格是3元/个,现在已经涨到了4元/个,在产品价格没有上调的情况下,明显削弱了商家的利润。

山东卓创资讯废纸市场分析师刘健认为“纸价的走高对人们的生活也是有很多消极的影响的,比如会使快递、食品等领域的包装成本增加,从而对我们的生活成本产生一定影响。”

“但同时,一定程度上也可以使推动人们回收废纸的积极性,同时刺激人们垃圾分类的意识,这是积极的一面。”

王耀告诉记者,“1吨废纸回收后,大约只能生产0.8吨纸浆。如果鼓励开展专业快递纸箱等废纸回收,倡导在强度足够、外观符合需求的情况下,尽量重复利用快递纸箱,那么情况会好很多。”

  (文章来源:山东商报)
23/04/2018 10:43
在中美贸易战下 废纸价格淡季逆市疯涨
http://www.100ppi.com 2018年04月23日 08:56 经济观察网
生意社04月23日讯
眼下,一场史无前例的大国贸易战冲击着国内各行各业。尽管造纸业尚未列入增收关税的名单中,但由于美国对华出口商品中废纸占比较高,整个行业已是山雨欲来风满楼。每年春节之后原本是造纸业的传统淡季,但让业界人士意外的是,近来国内废纸的价格却是一路逆市疯涨。

废纸价格已达到同期历史高点,与去年同期比涨幅近四成

从废纸行情走势来看,目前废纸价基本是已经呈直线上升趋势。4月17日,山东废纸价格已达到2500元/吨至2600元/吨,广东福建一带更是达到了2800元/吨左右。与3个月前相比,国内废纸价涨幅更是达到了11.85%之高;比去年同期更是达到近四成。

“眼下正值造纸产业的淡季,这一价格水平从历史同期来看,已经达到历史高点。”生意社纸张分析师如是说道。

一直以来,中国废纸回收量在全球范围内首屈一指,2016年废纸回收量达到了4964万吨,分别约占世界和亚洲废纸回收量的20%和50%。但是,中国2016年废纸回收率却仅为47.6%,远低于日本的79%和韩国的90%。同时,中国废纸消费量在全球遥遥领先,2015年消费量为7923万吨,占世界和亚洲废纸消费量的33%和59.3%。因此,中国目前的废纸收购格局呈现回收量大、效率低的现象。

随着贸易战的扩大化与造纸业的旺季即将到来,渠道商囤货现象严重

目前,中国废纸进口主要来自于美国、欧洲和日本三地,其中美国是最大的进口废纸来源地。2015年美废进口量为1301.8万吨,占中国废纸进口总量的44%。品类方面,《2016年中国造纸年鉴》数据显示,美废进口的主要类型有废箱纸板类、废报纸类、办公室废杂纸类、其他混杂废纸类,占比分为54.94%、27.62%、1.76%、15.69%。

废纸是纸厂造纸的主要原料,废纸价格的暴涨,势必将带动下游造纸产业的水涨船高。事实上,2017年国废价格已经演绎出一股过山车式的行情。

由于外废进口配额收缩,2017年比2016年进口总额下降了10%。国内每年废纸需求量约7800万吨,进口量约占总需求量得35%,外废进口额减少需要靠国废补充,但国内废纸回收率提升却是缓慢的过程。去年前三季度,国内废纸价格一路暴涨,最高曾涨到近3000元/吨。但在2017年国庆之后,受下游需求萎缩影响,市场情绪逐步趋于冷静,最低跌至约1750元/吨,最大跌幅超过了40%。 2018年春节后,中美之间一场史无前例的贸易大战剑拔弩张。

生意社纸张分析师指出,造纸业不在中国第一批增收关税的名单中,但随着贸易战的扩大化,谁也不知道会对整个行业产生什么冲击。加之,造纸业的旺季即将到来,整个市场对后市行情看涨,渠道商囤货现象严重,导致淡季不淡、价格飙升的现象。

根据预计,随着国内进口废纸政策的趋紧,2018年国内废纸价格总体呈上升趋势。

  (文章来源:经济观察网)






Lau333// AR2017 for ORNA and MUDA

Author:   |    Publish date: 

Key takeaways from Annual Reports for ORNA and MUDA. 
ORNA MUDA 
  • Overview
FY17 performance was due to increase in average selling price of corrugated boards and cartons boxes by ~18% and 11% YoY as the results of the continuous cost pass-through efforts.  By contrast, paper price increased 19% YoY.

Improved product mix structure with higher premium cartons’ contribution to overall sales also contribute to higher average selling price.

Net sales volume increased YoY by 7.55% to 93,940MT pa (approaching the installed capacity of 100,000 MT pa) with notable demand from E&E, F&B and Furniture industries.
  • Overview
FY17 revenue increased 22.2% YoY due to the uptrend in the price of industrial paper and limited allocation from overseas manufacturers. 

There is a constant shortfall in the domestic supply of waste paper which necessitated procurement  for waste paper from overseas.

Completed new corrugating line in Kajang while one of the paper machines was stopped for capacity expansion from Sept 2017. 
  • Capital expenses
No major capital expenses forecasted in FY18,
  • Capital expenses
Budgeted capital expenditure of RM100 million for 2018 (vs RM110m 2017) which is mainly for capacity expansion, upgrading and improving efficiency

Major expenses include the installation of new corrugating machines in Melaka and Johor Bahru, construction of a new factory in Air Keroh, Melaka with expected corrugating capacity expanded to 270,000 tonnes from 240,000 tonnes in FY17.
  • Prospects
Demand for corrugated packaging material is expected to grow more than 4% annually over the next five years

Will avoid dependency on single industry group and continue to diversify its customer and industry group base. 

Aims to position itself as the green partner and to provide value-added services to its customer.
  • Prospect
The current downward trend in waste paper price is an added advantage for the Group as it is expected to cushion the impact of higher operating cost such as energy cost, labour cost and a potential hike in interest rate. Overall, the Group is confident that 2018 will be a profitable year.
  • Dividend
Declared dividend of 2.50 sen per share (ex-date 28/6/2018).  Total dividend for FY17 5.00 sen per share

  • Dividend
Declared dividend of 3.50 sen per share (ex-date 27/6/2018).  Total dividend for FY17 3.50 sen per share

2018年4月12日星期四

恆远 hengyuan 4324 買吧,丰衣足食。

集团公司董事长、总经理王有德同马来西亚内贸部部长Dato Seri Hamzah进行会谈


2018年1月25日下午,集团公司董事长、总经理,HRC董事局主席王有德会同公司部分高管,与马来西亚内贸部部长Dato Seri Hamzah进行了亲切会谈。
Dato Seri Hamzah部长对HRC交割一年以来所取得的成绩表示了充分肯定,他对HRC在王总带领下将取得更大更好的发展抱有足够信心,同时,希望恒源石化作为“一带一路”战略下中国企业的成功典范,能够影响和引领更多的中国优秀企业到马来投资。
王总对Dato Seri Hamzah部长长期以来给予恒源的关注、关怀和支持表示感谢,并就公司交接一年多来的表现、欧四升级项目现状、资本管理策略、公司短期及长远规划目标同部长进行了汇报。
总经理办公室宣传部
2018年2月2日




只供参考,投资与買卖自负。
a)

Hengyuan Q1 2018 - Good Margins, Good Profit

Author:   |    Publish date: 

2018 has been a turbulent year thus far for the share price of HRC. However, is the same turbulence seen in the operations of HRC? In this article, lets attempt to estimate the profitability of HRC in the 1st Quarter of 2018.

1. SALES
In estimating sales, cost of goods sold and gross profit of HRC for Q1 2018, the 3:2:1 Crack Spread approach is highly popular and favoured. This widely used crack spread ratio is based upon the premise that 3 barrels of crude oil produce 1 barrel of gasoil (diesel) and 2 barrels of gasoline (petrol).

a. Sales Price
The daily historical data of the followings were obtained from CME Group's website for the quarter from 1 January 2018 to 31 March 2018:
Singapore Gasoil (Platts)
Singapore Mogas 95 Unleaded (Platts)


b. Sales Quantity
Sales volume is determined as the average of the past 8 most recent quarters (1 January 2016 to 31 December 2017). In determining this average, quarters with the highest and lowest sales volume were disregarded to eliminate unusual fluctuations.

Using the 3:2:1 Crack Spread ratio, daily diesel sales is estimated at 36,790 barrels while daily petrol sales amounted to 73,580 barrels.

c. Sales In RM
Daily sales price extracted in US$ were converted to RM using daily foreign exchange rates extracted from Bank Negara's website. The daily sales price in RM is then multiplied with the sales quantity of diesel and petrol respectively on a daily basis, giving a sales revenue of RM3,058,775,000 for the quarter.
Note: Detailed daily sales calculation has not been included here as it is voluminous.

2. COST OF GOODS SOLD
Cost of goods sold is determined as Opening Inventories + Purchases - Closing Inventories.


a. Opening Inventories
Based on the latest breakdown of inventories available as at 31 December 2016, 56% of inventories was that of crude oil, 41% of refined products while the balance 3% was of other materials. Applying this ratio (but ignoring the insignificant 3% of other materials), the breakdown of inventories as at 31 December 2017 is estimated as below:

Cost of diesel and petrol is calculated based on Q4 2017 gross profit margin of 11.5%.

b. Puchases
For presentation purpose, it is assumed that daily crude oil used in production of 110,370 barrels is purchased and replenished on a daily basis.
As in the sales estimation above, daily prices of Brent Crude Oil were extracted in US$ and translated into RM using daily foreign exchange rates. This figure is then multiplied with daily sales of 110,370 barrels of crude oil, giving total purchases of RM2,624,104,000.
Note: Detailed daily purchases calculation has not been included here as it is voluminous.

c. Closing Inventories
For direct comparison, physical closing inventories is maintained per physical opening inventories.
The opening inventories of 2.6m barrels of crude oil is able to last daily production consumption of 110,370 barrels for 24 days. At daily crude oil purchases of 110,370 barrels per day, closing inventories of crude oil is calculated based on daily prices of Brent Crude Oil extracted (in US$ and translated into RM using daily foreign exchange rates) for the last 24 days of March 2018 giving a value of RM707,805,000.
For apple to apple comparison, gross profit margin of diesel and petrol are maintained at 11.5%.

Note: Detailed daily purchases calculation for the last 24 days of Q1 2018 has not been included here as it is voluminous.

3. OTHER INCOME
Other income is determined as the average of the past 8 most recent quarters (1 January 2016 to 31 December 2017). In determining this average, quarters with the highest and lowest other income were disregarded to eliminate unusual fluctuations.


4. MANUFACTURING EXPENSES
a. Manufacturing expenses is determined as the average of the past 8 most recent quarters (1 January 2016 to 31 December 2017). In determining this average, quarters with the highest and lowest manufacturing expenses were disregarded to eliminate unusual fluctuations.

b. Manufacturing expenses for Q2 2017 was normalised due to expenses incurred for an unplanned maintenance shutdown. Manufacturing expenses is adjusted accordingly based on number of production days.


5. ADMINISTRATIVE EXPENSES
Administrative expenses is determined as the average of the past 8 most recent quarters (1 January 2016 to 31 December 2017). In determining this average, quarters with the highest and lowest administrative expenses were disregarded to eliminate unusual fluctuations.


6. DEPRECIATION AND AMORTISATION
Depreciation and amortisation expenses are determined as the average of the past 8 most recent quarters (1 January 2016 to 31 December 2017). In determining this average, quarters with the highest and lowest depreciation and amortisation expenses were disregarded to eliminate unusual fluctuations.


7. OTHER OPERATING GAINS
On 23 January 2018, HRC took a new term loan amounting to US$430m (RM1.7b) to refinance existing term loans, to finance the planned 2018 capital expenditure and a revolving credit facility for working capital purposes.
As at 31 December 2017, the outstanding US$ denominated term loans amounted to RM1,205,008,000. The foreign exchange on that date was 4.0620. The exchange rate as at 23 January 2018 was 3.9270. Assuming the new term loan was drawndown for full repayment on the said date, the realised foreign exchange gain for HRC amount to RM40,048,000.

8. FINANCE COST
Finance cost is determined as the average of the past 8 most recent quarters (1 January 2016 to 31 December 2017).In determining this average, quarters with the highest and lowest finance cost were disregarded to eliminate unusual fluctuations.


9. PROFIT BEFORE TAXATION


10. TAXATION EXPENSE
Depreciation is assumed as capital allowance for taxation purpose.


11. PROFIT AFTER TAXATION FOR Q1 2018


b)

HENGYUAN (Not Rated)
  • HENGYUAN surged 71.0 sen (8.5%) to end at RM9.06. This was accompanied by 13.6m shares being traded – above average volume of 4.4m shares.
  • Positive movements in the past three days, backed by indicating strong volumes could indicate a potential bottoming-out.
  • Likewise, momentum indicators also displayed signals of possible reversal, i.e. RSI rebounded strongly from oversold territory, with uptick seen in the MACD.
  • The share is currently in the midst of testing its resistance at RM9.10 (R1). A break out from R1 could spark a further rally towards RM11.00 (R2) and RM12.60 (R3) further up.
  • Conversely, RM6.00 (S1) represents a crucial support, in which a break below is highly negative and could possibly trigger another round of free fall.
Source: Kenanga Research - 10 Apr 2018
c)

Stallion - HengYuan Outlook 8 April 2018

Author:   |    Publish date: 

After my earlier posting on the drop of HengYuan, some followers were asking me how do I see in HengYuan. So, I am here to provide in depth analysis on this stock.
As I said earlier, I did warn that it is ridiculous when it was trading at the price near to 19. It justify my view by the drop from 19 to 6. So, now is the rebound phase and this has trigger the interest of the followers. Especially when Mr. Koon said he is coming back into HengYuan, this give the retail trader a confident booster.
I will see HengYuan from two different angles which I will elaborate at below.
Let see from Fundamental point of view :
Fourth Quarter result release showing that a small improvement of revenue but profit drop approximately 50% which you can see earlier quarter EPS was 120.59 compare to the most recent quarter which is only 61.18. So, from this we notice the business remain the same but what is curious is the drop of nearly 50% of the profit which require you dig out more info from the quarterly report. So, coming quarter most likely will be release on 24 May 2018 base on the historical release date. Unless you are pretty confident which HengYuan will resume the growth momentum for the revenue and profit, else it will be risky to hold on your position unless  got more than 20% PROFIT as your buffer.

From the top 30 major shareholders which we notice Solomon holders name do appear very frequent as I printscreen attach as below.  Name such as Deva Dassan Solomon, Helina Shanti Solomon, John Devaraj Solomon, Selina Sharmalar Solomon. Beside, Mr Koon Yew Yin, we should watch out closely Solomon family transaction.


Below I provide the screen capture of using Insage Professional showing Deva Dassan Solomon shareholding we could find the stock he is holding is SSteel, HengYuan and Petronm.


On top of that, we do notice actively disposal of HengYuan by Amanahraya Trustee Berhad – Amanah Saham Bumiputra. When the shareholding go below 5%, then it can move wild. Early alert for fellow HengYuan Trader. Technically speaking, the game is not over even with such huge drop from 19 to 6.



Technical Point of View :
  1. HengYuan started the rally early year 2017 from the level 1.98 till 19.16. So, I am plotting the chart using Fibonacci Retracement which show you each support resistance if you have the basic knowledge how to read this. So, the first resistance level peg at 8.54. When it able to penetrate this level then we shall look at the psychological resistance at 10. If able to breakout with strong volume together with buying interest, then I am at 10.50 as the next resistance.  From this level onward, I think anything go above will be extra for you. There is such thing in technical reading call cover gap. So, if would to cover previous gap down, then it is likely to rebound as high as 14. I would not expect it break above 15.48 level because if break this level. Then we can see bullish momentum and this definitely need to come together with a good revenue and profit. If this don’t happen, to me. 14 is more than enough. Nothing more than that. Anyone making more than 14 is crazy profit. You are rewarded for holding longer position than other.

It fulfill my 1 Cross 4 criteria ( Do attend M+Online Technical 101 course  ) to capture the entry level detection.

Conclusion : if there is no external factor such as TRADE WAR getting serious, my personal view is HengYuan should ride on the uptrend then don’t hold when near to next quarter result date. That is my personal opinion.

d)

HENGYUAN: Can Hengyuan pay better dividend?

Author:   |    Publish date: 

Dear all,
If your look into Hengyuan Q4 2017 financial report.
http://www.bursamalaysia.com/market/listed-companies/company-announcements/5705361
  1. Inventories RM 1,110,315,000
  2. Trade Receivable RM 1,080,401,000
  3. Other receivable and prepayments RM 166,296,000
  4. Deposits with licensed banks RM 210,000,000
  5. Bank Balance RM 302,907,000
  6. Trade and other payable RM 601,497,000
  7. Borrowing: Non Current  RM 1,125,905,000 Current RM 79,103,000
Note: A19 Currency Profile of borrowing
USD as at 31.12.2017 RM equivalent: RM 1,205,008,000.
USD exchange rate on 31/12/2017 1 USD = 4.0592
http://hrc.com.my/index.php/hengyuan-refining-company-berhad-secures-favourable-financing-of-rm1-7-billion-usd430-million/
This was announced on 23-1-2018. Highlight below.
“The facilities are segregated into a term loan and a revolving credit line. The term loan will be utilised towards refinancing HRC’s existing term loan and also to partially finance its planned capital expenditure. The revolving credit facility will support the company’s working capital needs. The term loan will be repaid in instalments throughout the tenure of the 5 year facility. Approval for the facilities was received from Bank Negara Malaysia on 22 January 2018.”
This mean from the date Hengyuan refinance the USD loans with RM loans Hengyuan will not have any mark to market gain/loss in the USD loan to equivalent RM anymore.
Assume actual refinancing loans and repayment on USD loans was done on 1st Feb 2018.
USD exchange rate at 1-2-2018 1 USD =3.9004.
If we base on exchange rate different at 31-12-2017 and 1-2-2018. This Q1 2018 will have USD loan realized gain of RM 1,205,008,000 X ((4.0592-3.9004)/4.0592))= RM47, 141,128.
I believe the S&P long term contract signed with Shell is base of Petrol/Diesel pricing = Crude oil Price + Crack Spread. Crude oil price and Crack Spread will be base on mutually agreed publication available to public and settlement on monthly basis with weightage average of daily price and spread. Will seek board confirmation on the actual formula and which mutual agreed publication in reference to crude oil price and Crack spread? What is the breakeven crack spread?
This S&P contract was agree upon when the petrol and diesel retail price was fixed by Government on monthly basis since then it had been changed to weekly basis hence perhaps Hengyuan have the right to renegotiate to weekly settlement with credit term of 10 days instead of 1 month. If this is done then the trade receivable will reduce from RM 1.08 billion to 370 million an addition cash in bank of 710 million.
With the support of own jetty and pipeline and 78 refined product storage tanks and ability to import the refined products from China to fulfill contract with Shell. (As what they already plan to do with booked refine products at preferred rate during the major turnaround shutdown in Aug 2018 from 45 to 90 days max) Perhaps Hengyuan can reduce their inventory from 16 days cycle to 11 days cycle. Hence inventory can be reduced from RM 1.11 billion to 763 million an addition cash in bank of RM 347 million.
Hope this will answer everyone question whether Hengyuan have the ability to pay better dividend or Not?
Thank you. Have a nice week end.